What will be the most miserable economies in 2018?

  • As Steve Hanke put it, the human condition inhibits a vast continuum between “happy” and “miserable.” When it comes to economics, misery tends to stem from high inflation and high unemployment. The best way to ensure happiness is to grow economically, but that is not easy with high inflation and unemployment.The vast majority of countries report on economic indicators on a regular basis. Therefore, we can compare each nation to get an idea of how happy or miserable the people are in each of the nations.

    Are you curious how happy or miserable your country is? In this post we attempt to give you an idea of which countries will be the most miserable (or happy) next year by using our projections for inflation and unemployment in 2018 for 126 countries to calculate their misery index score.

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    Tags: InflationInfographicUnemployment Rate

  • The World’s Top 10 Largest Economies

    When it comes to the top national economies globally, although the order may shift around slightly from one year to the next, the key players are usually the same.  At the top of the list is the United States of America, which according to Investopedia, has been at the head of the table going all the way back to 1871. However, as has been the case for a good few years now, China is gaining on the U.S., with some even claiming that China has already overtaken the U.S. as the world’s Number 1 economy.

    Nonetheless, going by nominal GDP measured in U.S. dollars alone, the U.S. maintains its spot followed by China and Japan. In this post we take a look at the world’s top economies according to our Consensus Forecasts for 2019 nominal GDP. We also discuss how the top economies change when looking at GDP per capita along with a highlight on emerging markets and their potential to catch up to the big players in the not too distant future.

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    Tags: Economic Growth (GDP)Infographic

  • Turkish lira plummets to all-time low on Erdogan’s monetary feud and tense U.S.-Turkey relations

    The Turkish lira (TRY) came under intense pressure in late November as political strain with the U.S. intensified and tensions between President Erdogan and Central Bank officials regarding the country’s monetary policy path going forward became more acute. The latest slump in the value of the lira followed renewed pressure by President Erdogan on the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s (CBRT) current policy stance. Erdogan argued in mid-November that Bank officials were on “the wrong path”, stressing that high interest rates were hindering economic growth and fueling higher inflation expectations. This was, however, at odds with the overarching view of analysts, who underlined the need for Turkey to tighten monetary conditions in a bid to rein in soaring consumer prices.

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    Tags: InfographicTurkey

  • Nigerian Economy Still Treading Water Thanks to Oil Sector

    The Nigerian economy contracted in 2016 for the first time in over 20 years, and, prior to 2015, the country had recorded a decade of growth of 6% or more. The contraction in 2016 was largely due to attacks by militants on oil production, which weighed heavily on an economy that was already suffering the impact of low oil prices.

    Nigeria is expected to return growth in 2017, albeit at a meagre 0.9% increase, as higher oil output and positive dynamics in the agricultural sector are helping the economy exit recession, and analysts project that growth will increase further next year. Nevertheless, Nigeria experts don’t see growth even coming close to the hay days (such as in 2014 when GDP was 6.2%), at least not before 2022.

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    Tags: InfographicSub-Saharan Africa

  • South Africa: Economy at a tipping point?

    South Africa’s economy exited technical recession in Q2 and recent data provides reason for cautious optimism. The recent recovery in agricultural output carried into in Q3, and consumer confidence is increasing on the back of moderating inflation and higher real wage growth. Adding to the good news, manufacturing output expanded in August for the first time this year. That said, this positive data, should be taken with caution. Endless political bickering constitutes is a real issue. It is the biggest stumbling block to faster GDP growth, and it continues to weigh on business confidence and stave off future investment. In September, the manufacturing PMI dipped further into contractionary territory, and business sentiment remained abysmally low despite improving from the over 30-year low recorded in August. Furthermore, political noise is set to remain elevated in the foreseeable future as the country gears up for the ANC Conference in December, when a new presidential candidate for next year’s election will be chosen.

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    Tags: InfographicSub-Saharan Africa

  • Spain-Catalonia: 7 economic experts weigh in on how the situation will affect the outlook

    On 26 October, President of Catalonia Carles Puigdemont put the decision of independence in the hands of the region’s parliament. The move almost guarantees that the Spansh Senate will decide on 27 October to approve measures that will allow Spain to take complete control over the semi-autonomous region’s government, as Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s conservative party holds a majority. How this all affects the economy of both the region and the country as a whole is uncertain, however, cracks have begun to show recently as the Spain-Catalonia situation has escalated.

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    Tags: Euro AreaEuropean UnionInfographicSpain

  • Iron ore facts and common questions answered

    Last year we began a series of posts in which we answer typical questions about the various commodities we cover with our Consensus Forecast commodities report. Last year we wrote posts on Brent and WTI crude oil as well as gold. This time out we will be covering iron ore, one of the most important yet underappreciated commodities. Keep checking back with us for more in our commodities explainer series.

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    Tags: Base Metals CommoditiesCommoditiesInfographic

  • Emerging Markets Are Kicking Into Higher Gear In 2017

    With emerging market economies looking as though they are coming out of their slump, we’ve got a new emerging markets outlook and infographic for you in this post. You can also get a free Emerging Markets report download here.

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    Tags: Emerging MarketsInfographic

  • Is the UK really “shackled to a corpse”?

    Over the last year and change, the economic outlook for the Eurozone has improved dramatically while in that same time the UK economic outlook has left much to be desired. A little over a year ago, Brexit campaigners proclaimed that if the UK did not leave the European Union it would be “shackled to a corpse.” A year on from the Brexit-vote and that looks far from the truth as the health of the Eurozone economy looks better than it has in some time.

    Recently released economic forecasts from the European Commission project the UK economy growing the slowest of almost any EU country in 2019 when the country is set to leave the bloc. Read our latest economic outlooks for the UK and the Eurozone below to find out what we project.

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